Posted by Mid-caps: 11.1x forward P/E
Small-caps: 10.6x pic.twitter.com/taGnDjyEhl— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 1, 2022
25yr avg:
10yr Treasury rate: 3.41%
SPX forward P/E: 16.84xNow:
10yr Treasury rate: 3.80%
SPX forward P/E 15.15x pic.twitter.com/UjU1lL0WZI— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 2, 2022
$SPY needs a bottom a la Oct 4-6, 2011. (Tues-Thurs)
Undercut the prior lows, three white soldiers, then keep ripping. pic.twitter.com/ddOSVdxGSt
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 2, 2022
The FANMAG group is in the midst of its worst relative one-year momentum on record, reversing much of the outperformance from the early days of the pandemic. 1/2 pic.twitter.com/9MAGdKr89w
— Rob Anderson (@robanderson_stl) September 26, 2022
Interesting that price made new lows late last week, but the number of stocks to make new lows didn't.
There could be some actual internal strength taking place.
This is a definite positive in a world that could use some. pic.twitter.com/wtdfHFgoTg
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 2, 2022
Heat map of the S&P 500's performance from this past week pic.twitter.com/P0TohpjNpU
— Ritvik Bhanot (@ritvikbhanot1) October 1, 2022
$SPX has bounced many times at 3,670 critical level (lime line). Today the $SPX dropped further, closed at 3,586 w/ volume significantly lower compared to the 09/16/2022 volume. Will $SPX bounce at the purple
VWAP line anchored at 12/26/2018 (2018 Cryptocurrency Crash Low)?
1/2 pic.twitter.com/81NJ1pd80s— NorthWestHawk
(@northwesthawk) September 30, 2022
Retail traders are starting to capitulate.
Last week was the 2nd largest retail selling week in the last 5 years. $SPY $QQQ $AAPL $TSLA $NVDA pic.twitter.com/Q3WgwFHn2L
— David Marlin (@Marlin_Capital) September 30, 2022
You would have to go back over a decade to see the last time $QQQ closed under the 200sma weekly pic.twitter.com/avg0h74gbE
— HCPG (@HCPG) October 1, 2022
Mid-caps: 11.1x forward P/E
Small-caps: 10.6x pic.twitter.com/taGnDjyEhl— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 1, 2022
S&P makes a new low for bear market, accompanied by fewer new 52w new lows, i.e. a positive divergence pic.twitter.com/MywbQL95hp
— Kevin Marder (@mardermarket) October 1, 2022
UK stocks now have a 9x forward P/E pic.twitter.com/EntvLjwfM3
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 1, 2022
$NDX % of Stocks Above 200 DMA = 8% pic.twitter.com/ibntOJ1DhQ
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) October 1, 2022
#SPX, monthly, log-scale
100-year view pic.twitter.com/ObbglyqNeQ
— Yuriy Matso (@yuriymatso) October 1, 2022
Two others to add are 1962 and 1998. pic.twitter.com/auZXz7soUm
— John Boik (@monsterstocks1) October 1, 2022
S&P 500 has finished in red on 56% of 184 U.S. trading days YTD; on track to have second-highest annual proportion of loss-producing trading days since modern inception in 1957; “top” spot belongs to 1974 with 57.7%
@SPDJIndices pic.twitter.com/Db0JTISNhM— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 27, 2022
Tech stock declines from their highs:
Apple: -16%
Microsoft: -30%
Google: -33%
Tesla: -33%
Amazon: -38%
Uber: -43%
Airbnb: -49%
Adobe: -58%
Facebook: -60%
Nvidia: -61%
Netflix: -67%
Etsy: -68%
PayPal: -69%
Spotify: -70%
Zoom: -74%
Docusign: -81%
Shopify: -83%
Snapchat: -87%— Jon Erlichman (@JonErlichman) September 26, 2022
The S&P 500 is down 11.1% over the past 10 days.
That is the worst 10 day return since June 2022, Feb/March 2020, August 2011, and March 2009.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 26, 2022
Flocking to safety: U.S. government bond funds have accounted for >73% of ETF inflows over past month, while large-/mid-cap equity fund flows turned negative
@DataArbor pic.twitter.com/Mx6LLU3hg0— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 27, 2022
Just how oversold?
Coming into this week ZERO (out of 72) industry groups were above their 10-week averages.
In the past 20 years, this has now happened 15 times (in 7 different clusters)https://t.co/e1NmPhitQl pic.twitter.com/yuFIIO3Q3O
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) September 27, 2022
VIX may have rallied ~8% Monday to its highest close since June but remains relatively subdued amid market selloff. @DataTrekMB said panic level is 33-36 — and must hold this for several days. Not just there yet. More on GBP/BoE here too from @johnauthers https://t.co/ofWWZmFuos pic.twitter.com/GMZMQ3HVqS
— Isabelle Lee (@isabelletanlee) September 27, 2022
$SPY short interest ↑ 13% p/p mid-Sep to 180.5mn — highest since 184mn at end-Feb '21. These shorts have done well in that from 15th through y'day's close, ETF ↓ 6.2%. But at this stage they are more likely to cover and help longs. ETF at June lows, and way oversold. $SPX pic.twitter.com/gxhKS3UHBa
— hedgopia (@hedgopia) September 27, 2022
Only 3% of stocks in the S&P 500 closed above their 50-day moving average today, a reading more oversold than 99% of historical data points. $SPX pic.twitter.com/6bhWaq5APW
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 27, 2022
But alas, "tends to" is far from always. There have been exceptions where the bounce is so short-lived that it is barely noticeable on a chart, and is soon followed by lower lows and yet another extremely oversold condition. We learned this lesson most notably in October 2008. pic.twitter.com/TfdYsF2qxa
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 27, 2022
The Chicago Board Options Exchange put/call ratio has surged to a new year-to-date high in recent days, and is near a level that's historically accompanied major bottoms in stocks. pic.twitter.com/AF5eqDDqag
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) September 27, 2022
This is one of the worst two week selloffs of all-time and it took place right in the middle of what is historically the worst time of the year.
We've been talking about this a lot and the good news is today is the end of the seasonal weakness. pic.twitter.com/NyzoOKePPl
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) September 27, 2022
The S&P 500 has recorded an extreme washout in breadth, which usually leads to at least a near-term bounce in equities. As of the close on Sept. 23, no stocks were making new four-week highs — the last time it was close to 0% was mid-June, before the summer rally. pic.twitter.com/kXnUJeXVHF
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) September 27, 2022
Just 2% of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above their 50-DMA.
Only 4 other times since 2002 have market internals been worse!
Market higher 9 and 12 months later every time. $NDX $QQQ $COMPQ $SPX pic.twitter.com/rR3GCg8mhT
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) September 27, 2022
According to Bloomberg, if today were the bear market bottom it would be the highest P/E for the SPX of any bear market low since at least 1957. Average bear market low P/E = 12.6x, current P/E = 17.9x. pic.twitter.com/usn4N7ZR2n
— BWK Capital (@BwkCapital) September 26, 2022