Posted by Value vs. Growth.
The historical double bottom in the energy-to-tech stocks ratio illustrates how early we are in this upward trend. pic.twitter.com/nbY2QcFjdf
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 25, 2022
Small caps are discounting recession risk, enduring worst 7 month sell-off in 70 years pic.twitter.com/YFsH6GeK3w
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) July 24, 2022
Are we living in a mirror image of '74-75? 👀 pic.twitter.com/KryUU27ZCZ
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) July 23, 2022
S&P 500 operating leverage, broken down by sector. Energy leads, which is one reason why the rising price of oil and gas have been such a boon for the sector — and also why falling energy prices can impact shares so heavily. pic.twitter.com/ZfCyQLS944
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) July 24, 2022
Bear markets that lasted under a year were generally ones that weren’t accompanied by a recession. If we are headed into a recession, the Bear market has a lot further to go, both in terms of time and depth. https://t.co/eeQe0XDeR9
— AnilVohra1962 🇬🇧🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@AnilVohra1962) July 24, 2022
Bulls & bears 🐂 🐻
The average duration of a bull market is 51 months with a return of 162%. 📈
The average duration of a bear market is 20 months with a loss of 41%. 📉
If this bear market is like those prior, then we've got longer to go and lower prices ahead.@ayeshatariq pic.twitter.com/oyVwy55tCP
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) July 24, 2022
S&P Telecom index, worst week since 2008: pic.twitter.com/sySHiyrWra
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) July 23, 2022
📌 Flows
Should equity investors expect a sharp recession for the bull market to resume?
👉 https://t.co/JKtv1wBK8oh/t @BofAML #markets #sp500 $spx #spx $spy#stocks #stockmarket #equities #investing pic.twitter.com/08t4jcyRqz
— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) July 23, 2022
$NDX closed above its 10 week MA which confirms that the June low was the end of wave A of the bear market which started in November. Wave B may go as high as the 50% retracement of wave A at 13900 and should end in late August. Wave C will decline into February 2023. pic.twitter.com/XTACpFxVBQ
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) July 23, 2022
$NDX Nasdaq 100 Index
Performance 90-days after the % of stocks > 200DMA crosses back above 10%.
Date range: November '96 – July '22.
Average return = 24.85%
N=4, but still noteworthy IMO given the wash out we saw in late June. pic.twitter.com/U5ln28cEuX
— Shane C. Murphy (@murphycharts) July 23, 2022
BofA's Michael Hartnett
"Buy Now: "Only time you've ever seen this level of pessimism and not made money being contrarian long was Lehman"… Pay Later: peak CPI, peak yields, Fed done by 2023 unlikely without big recession and/or big credit event, sell $SPX 4200"$SPY $QQQ
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 22, 2022
Since June 17 low, 30-day Realized Vol dropped 14pts, biggest drop in Realized VOL for 2022.$SPX is using inverted axis on left, so as Realized VOL drops, it is consistent with rising stocks
The 2 track well but big gap has opened suggesting SPX has more gains$SPY $QQQ $VIX pic.twitter.com/b9LOz3s0QK
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 22, 2022
In the week leading up to Thursday, Non-Commercial (hedge funds) significantly increased their S&P500 Futures $ES_F short exposure.
Combined with Asset Managers (institutional), short exposure as % of open interest is highest ON RECORD!$SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/Ydy1mbfQh7
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) July 23, 2022
Today we have the worst PMIs since the last two recessions but with a Fed becoming progressively more aggressive in tightening monetary conditions.
Hard to believe we have seen the bottom for stocks.
Valuations remain very frothy and liquidity is no longer the same. pic.twitter.com/QOPy33fkAN— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) July 23, 2022
The 6 month business outlook in the Philly mfr'g index fell to the lowest since Sister Sledge was singing We Are Family. pic.twitter.com/BiBoVxSnbb
— Peter Boockvar (@pboockvar) July 21, 2022
Did somebody say soft landing? 👇 Chart @WillieDelwiche pic.twitter.com/RHsTSgRMjb
— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) July 21, 2022