Posted by Europe's natural-gas crisis is worse than it looks: @JavierBlas https://t.co/lw5jRiqTAG via @opinion pic.twitter.com/0VYzgij5yo
— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) July 11, 2022
Refining margins have been up pretty much across all main regions (chart missing China). I have never seen this before in my career 👇 pic.twitter.com/u6kLjukWhi
— Gianluca (@MenthorQpro) July 11, 2022
In case you missed it: Dr. #Copper – the metal w/the PhD – which many use to forecast the economy, printed its fifth consecutive weekly decline and trading at levels not seen since Feb2021. pic.twitter.com/NQnRRrmyGb
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) July 10, 2022
BofA: Incoming data point to a loss of momentum, suggesting the US economy may have contracted in the first and second quarters this year
BofA sees +8.7% headline CPI next week
+0.5% Retail Sales
49.5 Univ of MI Sentiment pic.twitter.com/3zGWlXNouL— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) July 8, 2022
And speaking of bonds: In retrospect, the 3.5% high print for the 10-year Treasury yield would have made for a juicy entry point. /3 pic.twitter.com/DugMqWRQZW
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) July 6, 2022
Especially when looking at this 40-year history of mean-reversion. /END pic.twitter.com/wTyKdYX7i1
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) July 6, 2022
Soaring commodity prices were a precursor to the red-hot inflation in the economy, but now there is a cooling trend: Not only are container shipping rates falling, but so are commodities in general. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/1bU8z8Ppvj
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) July 6, 2022
Caution sign: In a highly financialized economy, it has to matter that mortgage rates have doubled in record time, just as home prices are up 21% year-over-year. It’s a double-dose of sticker shock, which could slow the economy down from here. pic.twitter.com/s3tGdj5pw7
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) July 7, 2022
Ratio of equity vol to treasury vol is near its lows because of the rise in volatility of USTs (see previous tweet).
Via @ISABELNET_SA pic.twitter.com/6rM7ZyhBbC
— AnilVohra1962 🇬🇧🇨🇦🇺🇸 (@AnilVohra1962) July 7, 2022
US consumers account for roughly 70% of US economic activity.
The Fed promised they’d go ahead with the fastest hiking cycle in decades despite consumer sentiment tanking.
It was never going to be sustainable. pic.twitter.com/Ri7WYUKgPN
— Alf (@MacroAlf) July 6, 2022
June ISM Services 55.3 vs. 54 est. & 55.9 in prior month; new orders dipped to 55.6, supplier deliveries edged up to 61.9, and backlogs spiked to 60.5; prices paid eased to 80.1 … unfortunately, employment fell back into contraction and is at lowest since July 2020 pic.twitter.com/0tKnN3gRua
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 6, 2022
DEUTSCHE: “.. The rolling 20-day move in our commodity index is now seeing around the third largest decline in 90 years.” pic.twitter.com/oYZe9ybiz0
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) July 6, 2022
Spread between ISM Manufacturing new orders and production has dropped sharply into negative territory … now at lowest since October 2009 pic.twitter.com/xXaHa0TfNg
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 6, 2022
Back to inversion (again) for 10s2s yield curve pic.twitter.com/yamtNtHivg
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) July 6, 2022
The cycle alongside copper/gold … took a bit, but it's all falling into place. Precious > Industrial from here. #macro pic.twitter.com/D9eQV2xSh3
— Kantro (@MichaelKantro) July 6, 2022
Just as one problem seems to be going away (inflation), IG credit spreads are reflecting rising recession fears. If claims begin to rise sharply stocks could fall another 20% #macro $SPY pic.twitter.com/w7BaHdZads
— Kantro (@MichaelKantro) July 6, 2022
Wheat back to pre-invasion levels…
Was that it for the famine discussion in here? pic.twitter.com/93ylT88QZI
— AndreasStenoLarsen (@AndreasSteno) July 6, 2022
The ADXY (Asian Currency DXY) needs to be on your radar screen. If this breaks the dollar is everyones biggest problem. pic.twitter.com/7PaVV37z74
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) July 5, 2022
Commodity Crash!
Oil: 2-month low
Gas: 3-month low
Gold: 10-month low
Silver: 2-year lowMetal Meltdown!
Copper: 20-month low
Aluminum: 13-month low
Zinc: 9-month lowWheat: 5-month low
Soybean: 5-month low
Sugar: 6-month low
Coffee: 1-year low#Commodities #Oil #Metal— Deepanshu Bhandari (@deepdbhandari) July 6, 2022
JUST IN:
Caixin June Services PMI 54.5 [Est. 46.0 Prev. 41.4]
Caixin June Composite PMI 55.3 [Prev. 42.2]#China #PMI $CNY 🇨🇳https://t.co/F4ZSk195fJ— CN Wire (@Sino_Market) July 5, 2022
#Euphoriameter dropped to almost a 10-year low in June (lower forward PE ratio, evaporation of bullish sentiment, generally higher volatility)
How low does it need to go tho? https://t.co/0YmP10rX5w$SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/OoIwPTMcxz
— Topdown Charts (@topdowncharts) July 4, 2022
US junk bonds yield 8.9% pic.twitter.com/FnM8PDjheV
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) July 3, 2022
This is good news: Wheat prices have declined strongly over the last few weeks. They have fallen by 31% compared to the peak in the middle of May. pic.twitter.com/uHZIvRmyx2
— Philipp Heimberger (@heimbergecon) July 1, 2022