Posted by More than 90% of S&P 500 components are above their 50-dma. Historically, it suggests that the bottom is likely in. However, by the time you get here, #markets tend to be very overbought, so use pullbacks to add exposure.
h/t @ISABELNET_SA @michaellebowitz pic.twitter.com/NXeSZcMXVZ— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) August 16, 2022
According to GS Prime, this rally has now become the 3rd biggest hedge fund short covering event in the last decade. $SPY $QQQ $AAPL $TSLA $NVDA pic.twitter.com/IiEDqOEr0U
— David Marlin (@Marlin_Capital) August 13, 2022
99% of industry groups are above their 10-week average.
Last three times this happened:
Nov 2020
Jun 2020
Mar 2019 pic.twitter.com/TVYvCWsaCv— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) August 13, 2022
New highs > new lows for the first time this year. pic.twitter.com/uYvrCNnhnI
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) August 13, 2022
The most likely scenario for the S&P500 is that it will continue to run upwards until it hits an earlier established rejection point. Which is either @ 4304 or 4380. Coincidentally, the Stoch indicator is swinging upwards and still has room before it hits 80. $SPY $SPX pic.twitter.com/w6nNBjEr4n
— Jason (@jasonmhh) August 14, 2022
Suttmeier BofA: SPX broke out above 4157-4178 to target low 4300s next pic.twitter.com/8Ad2Cch6BJ
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) August 13, 2022
Households bought $5.9tn in equities over the past 2 years (through end 1Q22), with inflows recorded in every quarter since Covid.
Historically, the past three major market lows have occurred 1-2 quarters after substantial household investor selling pic.twitter.com/RLkZgteusp
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) August 9, 2022
Last time Russell 2000 Index was this much overbought was May 2021. In the past month and half, we went rapidly from oversold to overbought as breadth was really bad (right at the bottom only 12% of stocks in the index were above 200D MA). From lows, the index is up around 18%. pic.twitter.com/uNOY5R4ZQV
— MacroNick (@NicolaLampis) August 9, 2022
Small caps remain historically cheap vs. large caps pic.twitter.com/fdOs18x08c
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) August 9, 2022
$SPX has improved intermediate-term momentum, but the 2008 bear market lends skepticism as to its staying power #fairleadstrategies pic.twitter.com/AAMHbnwxmU
— Katie Stockton, CMT (@StocktonKatie) August 2, 2022
Final heat map of the S&P 500's performance from this past week pic.twitter.com/IaQu2PVepy
— Ritvik Bhanot (@ritvikbhanot1) August 7, 2022
What led markets down, has led markets up.
NY FANG+ and Russell 2000 Growth, Pavlovian leadership!$NYA $SPY $QQQ $RUT pic.twitter.com/ETPpGDCB8h
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) August 7, 2022
I think there is also a similar diamond reversal pattern in the #nasdaq futures, along with an H&S. Like #sp500 should see a return to the origin of the rally. A move above last week's high kills the reversal pattern. pic.twitter.com/Aun0fzenaw
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) August 7, 2022
$SPY
Which trendline gets touched first🤔 pic.twitter.com/Nsmbx0DQGW— Bracco ⚡️ (@Braczyy) August 7, 2022
$QQQ
Struggling to break the all time high resistance zone above pic.twitter.com/9RowGeJMLJ— Bracco ⚡️ (@Braczyy) August 5, 2022
This chart is one that doesn't 🚫 look investor friendly 🙅Notice in 2000 & 2007 where the top panel is, then see where the stock market low is. It is well after the yield spread has flipped➕. $SPY $QQQ $NDX $SPX $XHB #RecessionWatch $TNX $FVX
More –> https://t.co/tKhpAtBwFw pic.twitter.com/hlRSnLjtxy— Greg Schnell, CMT (@Schnellinvestor) August 7, 2022
$SPX – The current rally may continue even into the 1st week of September where there's a 35 week cycle going back to the September 2020 high. The target is somewhere between the 50% and 62% levels. If it retraces 57% like it did in 2008 the target will be 4310(the May high). pic.twitter.com/ZEqt76ejaW
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) August 6, 2022
Speaking of China.. 10.9x forward P/E.
Cheap for a reason. The govt might snatch those profits through regulations! $VThttps://t.co/0v4P7OCoYq pic.twitter.com/u4gXeh8Ti5— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) August 6, 2022
Ran-dumb:
The S&P 500 just put a 3-week winning streak that gained 10%+ from the low 3 weeks ago while closing between -10%-20% below its ATH weekly close.
Only 5 instances since I've been alive and I found that surprising. pic.twitter.com/CHQmpSH9Qh
— Steve Deppe, CMT (@SJD10304) August 5, 2022
Non-commercials most net short $RUT mini-index futures since Sep '08. Bulls have opportunity to cause them pain as index (1922) above 1900 resistance; last week, took out trendline resistance from last Nov when index peaked at 2459. If breakout is real, 2080s in due course. $IWM pic.twitter.com/sJsXarDDS4
— hedgopia (@hedgopia) August 5, 2022
Big cap tech is looking expensive again, particularly considering the rates outlook. The effective fed funds rate, at 2.33%, nearly equates to the level where it peaked in 2019. At that time, the S&P 500 tech sector traded at a P/E of about 20x, or nearly 2x below current. pic.twitter.com/2eq8FukbjA
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) August 5, 2022
Recent data shows Asset Managers and Leveraged Funds have low equity exposure. This is demand waiting to be unleashed. Since the GFC, this has been a great contrary indicator. If soft landing becomes more likely, plenty of money will have to chase markets higher. @NDR_Research pic.twitter.com/paYTfQRwJB
— Day Hagan Asset Mgt (@DayHagan_Invest) August 5, 2022
$spx today vs 2008 👇👇 pic.twitter.com/7xTnnHCViI
— Álvaro Oviedo 🇺🇦 (@alvoviedo) August 6, 2022
This chart shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average of today vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average of 2008 #dow #stocks $dia #DowJones pic.twitter.com/za4fm7FdiN
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) August 7, 2022
Growth sector outlook packing the biggest punch to year ahead EPS forecasts for S&P 500. pic.twitter.com/c34kyO2nJF
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) August 5, 2022
Global earnings estimates are under pressure, though European estimate revision looks oddly stable compared to US and EM. pic.twitter.com/odnZkEFfmo
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) August 2, 2022
Nasdaq volume momentum just round-tripped back to the highs of last November which was the Nasdaq top.
If this wave count is correct then wave 'c' is far below wave 'a' which makes this an extremely weak retracement.
Setting up panic crash. pic.twitter.com/oub6nSxOAy
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 6, 2022
Two months between the Q1 peaks and two months between these two latest peaks. This week was the lowest realized volatility since the April top. There are three big open gaps below the market.
Why make up new shit to say when we've already seen this movie before? pic.twitter.com/Oi7qMd86Hm
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) August 6, 2022
Global earnings estimate revision momentum is hitting levels usually reserved for market lows. pic.twitter.com/wFwcsOJh8O
— Gina Martin Adams (@GinaMartinAdams) August 2, 2022