Posted by The SPX McClellan oscillator closed at -12. Each time this year it closed below 0 after dropping from the extremely overbought zone at 100+(April, June and August) turned out to be a short or intermediate term high. Now the SPX price will have to confirm. pic.twitter.com/x86LQ85yNt
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) December 5, 2022
1st rally to 78% retrace level 5 weeks off the low
2nd rally to 61% retrace level 9 weeks off the low
3rd current rally retrace near 50% level 7 weeks off the low
Notice the strength getting weaker before the reversal $spy
Weekly chart pic.twitter.com/nVZXLVFrwe— ThePainTrader (@ThePainTrader) December 5, 2022
Be careful what you wish for this holiday… previous @federalreserve pivots produced a median decline for US Equities vs US Bonds of -28% pic.twitter.com/StMcdlEl1D
— Ian Harnett (@IanRHarnett) December 4, 2022
S&P 500 $SPX managed to get above its 200D Moving Average but will still need to close above 4,090 to break the downtrend that began in January pic.twitter.com/1I0lR1BqCy
— Barchart (@Barchart) December 5, 2022
Leading Economic Index (LEI) 6-month % change is in the 2nd-worst decile.
That's bad for the S&P 500 looking ahead.https://t.co/XrMaWXxm4Z pic.twitter.com/Gbp84r0zXZ— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) December 4, 2022
$DJIA Now v 2000s v 2008s
Even in 2000s $DJIA created the illusion that new highs were coming when it went above 40/50/60 WMA comfortably before making new lows.
In 2008 it barely got over WMAs so every bear market is different. pic.twitter.com/bTNAfa452G
— Vik Soien (@VSoien) December 4, 2022
$SPY Chart Update:
This is the weekly chart of the SPY. Notice the 50 & 200 weekly moving average acting as resistance & support, respectively? Almost to the very penny!I guarantee you this is what every smart money/hedgie are looking at it.
Bears got work to do asap. Mush! pic.twitter.com/fNuo3nQ9wS
— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) December 4, 2022
Sellside strategists delivering a lump of coal via their 2023 year-end SPX targets. pic.twitter.com/hKlnXzLaMy
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) December 3, 2022
One of the ways to follow institutional investors is to watch up-down volume, $NYUD. Above the 50d MA is good as is breaking the DTL(chart 1). The 50d needs to turn up. Also note that $SPX has broken its 8 month DTL on a closing basis(chart 2). All arguments to be invested here. pic.twitter.com/0Z96Wr8P2D
— Alan Cohen (@al_xdpg) December 3, 2022
SPX pricey at 17.7x next year's earnings?
SMIDs cheap under 14x? pic.twitter.com/Z7KxyoegdN
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) December 3, 2022
The $VIX, you either love it or hate it, but all yr it's signaled a $SPY pullback when it reaches this green support level. Of course "this time is different" can always apply, but if I was a betting man, & I am, think we are closer to an interim top than bottom in stocks.
FWIW! pic.twitter.com/9ej4AZ3X5g— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) December 3, 2022
Is the 4th time the charm?$SPX $VIX pic.twitter.com/VkIQsOjNy7
— Ian McMillan, CMT (@the_chart_life) December 3, 2022
Today is a huge decision day for the markets. Not only is the first "bad" jobs data is expected to be announced later on, buıt also the grand daddy of the markets, $SPX is at the edge of a cliff. pic.twitter.com/MbTcFvPIwY
— Crypto Analytics (@cryptoanalyst72) December 2, 2022
$SPX – The trendline from the all time high was breached only intraday, not a closing basis yet, but it will be breached since we are 5 days away from the next 80 trading day cycle high that is due on December 8. The next horizontal resistance is at the September high at 4119. pic.twitter.com/3fEFaxtrnz
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) December 1, 2022
$SPX monthly – The TSI has a bullish crossover. The vertical lines show all bullish crossovers coming from below 0 since 2009. The odds are at least 60% that the low is already in. The main thing that's still missing to confirm it is a close above the 20 month MA(currently 4241). pic.twitter.com/FFCCiNCeJN
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) December 1, 2022
$SPY early signs of a reversal on a rising wedge breakdown after running into resistance last week. Always room to backtest the breakdown before heading lower. Based on this current setup I expect new lows before end of the year or very early 2023 pic.twitter.com/bs5M7wrwIP
— Reformed Tr🅰️der (@Reformed_Trader) November 28, 2022