Posted by $SPY Chart Update:
We got the mother of all trendlines that even a blind person can see up top. But before then, bulls are in control for now & want to see a break above 390 convincingly, before heading to test 400, then 409 gapfill, then that 410-415 area. Bears got work to do.. pic.twitter.com/CUwWjNDvTY— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) October 30, 2022
The forward 12-month P/E ratio for $SPX of 16.3 is below the 5-year average (18.5) and below the 10-year average (17.1). #earnings, #earningsinsight, pic.twitter.com/Xvr11fEsXz
— FactSet (@FactSet) October 30, 2022
Some weekly $SPX thoughts:
1. Still a bear mkt rally imo < upper TL & falling 40 w ma
2. 3900 level key & likely an OB resistance area now
3. After a pause, think 40 w ma could be touched
4. Bearish < 3810HAGW all! pic.twitter.com/aAALluykly
— Mountain View Trading (@DanWiserMtnView) October 29, 2022
Stocks bottom before the economy does, as this stunning visualising from Michael Cembalest shows. pic.twitter.com/0EdUHAya27
— Commonstock (@JoinCommonstock) October 29, 2022
All good things come to an end…
Today's strength in Apple and other marquee NDX names notwithstanding, we remain underweight this area of the market. $NDX $SPX
Subscribe at https://t.co/RRxJAeLcgO pic.twitter.com/IxFIPoAXY6
— Carter Braxton Worth (@CarterBWorth) October 28, 2022
$AAPL is up Y/Y pic.twitter.com/KIiLEwe5TW
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 29, 2022
1-year returns:
Value -0.7% $VTV
Growth -27.6% $VUG pic.twitter.com/uFpLof828I— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 29, 2022
Trend and macro indicators remain unfavorable, BUT sentiment and breadth indicators are alerting us to keep an open mind regarding the bullish case. #sentimentrader pic.twitter.com/evHoI6SWXu
— Jay Kaeppel (@jaykaeppel) October 29, 2022
Heat map of the S&P 500's performance from this past week pic.twitter.com/qVMJHcREig
— Stock Market News – Evan (@StockMKTNewz) October 28, 2022
$SPX closed the week at the 20 week MA. Multi week highs have occurred every 9-12 weeks this year. The next top is likely to occur next week. It can't be ruled out it may reach the 62% ret. at 4007. The February-March rally was 12.7%. The current uptrend will equal it at 3936. pic.twitter.com/eTxl7IVo4s
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) October 29, 2022
$NDX – The main reason why the rally probably isn't over yet is the weakness in tech. The B wave in March retraced 60% and hit the 20 week MA. The current B wave has retraced only 38% so far and hasn't hit the 20 WMA(~12K), the minimal target for an intermediate term high. pic.twitter.com/AM6qlQXaW7
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) October 29, 2022
52% of SPX cos have reported Q3 results @FactSet:
71% EPS beat rate
68% rev beat rate
Blended earnings growth: +2.2%, lowest since 3Q20
2:1 negative:positive guidance (28 to 14)Ex-Energy, SPX reporting a -5.1% EPS growth rate pic.twitter.com/HPZGnrfW5u
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 28, 2022
After a furious 14%+ rally in 2 weeks $DJIA closes above the Feb & March lows & the 200MA.
The chart still in a downtrend until proven otherwise.
The larger message: Nobody can be stubborn in a bear market but active, flexible management can yield immense 2 way opportunities. pic.twitter.com/ZC7Gd9xYnE— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) October 29, 2022
YTD:
Dow Jones Industrial Average -9.6%
Nasdaq Composite -29.0% pic.twitter.com/YaAgziJomc— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 29, 2022
$SPY
2008 vs 2022 UpdateAs October comes to a close we are still on track. This rally happened rather quick, will be interesting to see what this looks like mid November!
Will updated at the end of each week. Have a great weekend everyone! pic.twitter.com/GyCCl4VUuW
— Bracco ⚡️ (@Braczyy) October 28, 2022
I think the 2008 vs. 2022 analog on the #sp500 shifted two weeks forward. I mentioned earlier this week it may have. Again this isn't meant to predict prices; it is meant to tell us if the #bearmarket cycle is still in play. For now, it still has a pulse. pic.twitter.com/yMv8G2wv91
— Michael J. Kramer (@MichaelMOTTCM) October 28, 2022
The disparity of the Dow Jones has become visible now. Rotation into value is a reality. #DJI #DowJones pic.twitter.com/mOOh0InKew
— Jason (@jasonmhh) October 29, 2022
🇺🇸 S&P 500
According to BofA, a "recession shock" is coming and new lows for US stocks are likely in the first quarter of 2023
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYWVXh/t @BofAML #markets $spx #spx $spy #sp500 #equities#returns #stocks #stockmarket #recession #investing pic.twitter.com/BRbwkYyFrC
— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) October 29, 2022
Since 1998:$DIA +545%$SPY +523% pic.twitter.com/SKfRjEJOBD
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) October 29, 2022
$SPY ok. Regardless what you think about today vs 2008, the fact we’ve followed the 2008 analog so closely up to this point is straight up weird. pic.twitter.com/5ZfaJeGSmO
— Reformed Tr🅰️der (@Reformed_Trader) October 28, 2022
S&P 500 Anchored VWAP (volume weighted average price) based on COVID low, June 2022 low, and Aug 2022 high all sit near today’s close. #ReferencePoints
Click image to enlarge. $SPX pic.twitter.com/vdNWkWMBDC
— Chris Ciovacco (@CiovaccoCapital) October 25, 2022
8. Good news everyone, the 5 largest stocks of the S&P500 have seen their valuations reset to a #PermanentlyHighPlateau
Also, could argue the S&P495 is cheap, but n.b. this is on consensus EPS (which likely fall in recession)
h/t @zerohedge $SPX $SPY pic.twitter.com/ENbJaq9Mr6
— Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) October 29, 2022
Oct 18 Premkt. Extreme projection. Good news/bad news scenario of how bear #stockmarket rally COULD hit S&P 4,000 THEN fall to 3,393 (pre-Covid high) w/in approx top/bottom channels. Earnings prob drive rise then inflat’n, FX$, bonds & macro news hits to 3,393. #stocks #investing pic.twitter.com/MJiA9AuLql
— Macrotrend Mojo (@MacrotrendMojo) October 18, 2022
$SPY $SPX – For those hating on my earlier bullish #PatternMatch – yes I recognize that this is also a possibility – note as long as we remain above the UTL am bullish – If we lose it – I will become a bear but NOT before pic.twitter.com/7LHBy13xLS
— ShortSeller (@ShortsellerST) October 29, 2022
$SPY
The average length of bear market rallies since the start of 2022 has been +12.57%We are currently at 11.89%
Until we see higher lows and higher highs, I will consider this bounce as another sell the pop opportunity
I do not care for a bottom, I just trade the chart pic.twitter.com/VAbaKv0NiJ
— Bracco ⚡️ (@Braczyy) October 30, 2022
A mind blowing example of how relevant long term trend charts are: $NDX
The 2 most profound lows in recent memory?
The 2009 GFC lows & the Covid crash lows.
What just happened in October?
A perfect tag of the lower up trend line & bounce.
Nothing's broken at this point. pic.twitter.com/i0Vndjl6Um— Sven Henrich (@NorthmanTrader) October 30, 2022