Posted by 🇺🇸 #SPX | Traders’ positioning on US #equities may have reached peak bearishness already – Bloomberg
*CFTC S&P 500 net non-commercial futures positions, an indicator of directional short positions, have reached levels last seen during previous downturns in 2008, 2011, 2015 & 2020 pic.twitter.com/9CpyogPb3n— Christophe Barraud🛢🐳 (@C_Barraud) September 12, 2022
$SPY – Market Structure
Above the 401.56 resistance level. However still below 409.60, which is a supply level.
If the price is still below 409.60, there is a high probability that this three-day rally is just a rally into resistance. pic.twitter.com/zO2GlsGGGo
— Francisco (@BalarezoCapital) September 12, 2022
SPX rallied after support at 3900 bent but did not break
What now? Hold key MAs and mind the gap = bullishSuttmeier BofA pic.twitter.com/3mL89nrLtF
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) September 11, 2022
The $NYSE up volume yesterday was 90%. It's the 4th 90%+ day this year. The previous cases:
8/10- SPX topped 4 days later
7/19- SPX topped 3 days later
5/13- SPX topped 2 days later
The only close example that topped on the same day was 89% on 5/4, but that was an FOMC day. pic.twitter.com/01s3KKd6dc— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) September 10, 2022
$IXIC Nasdaq Composite – Market Structure
Three-day rally right into the 21 DEMA. Still way below the supply level of 12,438.86.
The market structure is bearish, and if this rally is just rallying into resistance, it should not surprise you. pic.twitter.com/3CLVEK7COX
— Francisco (@BalarezoCapital) September 12, 2022
Weekly plan for $SPX:
Looking for a drop to at least 4025/30. If not hold, 3995/4005 next (first bulls LIS). Below that, 3975 & last MAJOR support (&LIS for bulls) at 3940/45. Sell off below 3930.
Resistance at 4110, then 4140 & 4160 (very strong)
Pls RT#ES_F #SPX #SPY pic.twitter.com/JDuxgX1Miu
— Arastoo Fazeli (@ArastooFazeli) September 10, 2022
Recap of weekly plan for $SPX:
1) bullish bias correct ✅
2) 3970/75 hit
3) once 3975 broke, it got to 4010 (vs 4015) & dipped +50 points
4) once 4015 broke, it got to 4050 (overshot it by 25 points)
Not perfect but much better than many. Pls RT for more.#ES_F #SPX #SPY https://t.co/ecltxlLPIq pic.twitter.com/WuRb91DZow
— Arastoo Fazeli (@ArastooFazeli) September 9, 2022
$SPX had a weekly bullish outside reversal candle that closed back above its 10 and 20 week MAs. I expect a rally to at least 4160. If it goes on to make higher highs past next week, meaning on the 3rd or 4th week of September, this rally will likely continue into mid October. pic.twitter.com/Ye8hVK82Fm
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) September 10, 2022
$NDX had a weekly bullish outside reversal candle that closed back above its 20 week MA. The only other similar candle this year occurred in March when it went higher for 2 more weeks. The odds for another up week are about 90% and it's likely to rally back to the March low ~13K. pic.twitter.com/uL9jouolTC
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) September 10, 2022
Final heat map of the S&P 500's performance from this past week pic.twitter.com/ozVcx7iXBv
— Ritvik Bhanot (@ritvikbhanot1) September 10, 2022
The rally today was stronger than I expected and $SPX closed above 4062 which means that a top isn't in yet. From January to May the recent 17 TD cycle high used to last 20 TD, therefore I expect this rally to continue into 9/14 and get to at least the next Fibo level at 4163. pic.twitter.com/gOkVzNt5ew
— CyclesFan (@CyclesFan) September 9, 2022
Risk rally picked up steam, S&P500 gained 3.7% over holiday-shortened week, lifting SPX >50d & 100d MAs, triggering short coverings. While Fed expectations grew more hawkish, swaps now pricing +72bp for Sep, mkts optimistic that CenBank can restore price stab w/o derailing growth pic.twitter.com/nJiKvzwpau
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) September 9, 2022
However, there is the issue of the confirmed “head and shoulder” pattern which suggests there is still downside #risk to the #market. https://t.co/Ez6Hiec0dy pic.twitter.com/o5xoLiWYzk
— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) September 10, 2022
$SPX I am looking for more rally here. This is another supporting factor. When $CPCE turns down from these levels, we generally at least get a few more days of bounce or better. Not in 2008! pic.twitter.com/fuhZJnAfCC
— Alan Cohen (@al_xdpg) September 10, 2022
A hated rally via @business pic.twitter.com/ptOYTfiv6G
— Andrew O'Connell, CFA, FRM (@realpristinecap) September 10, 2022
The average unweighted constituent return in the Consumer Discretionary Sector outperformed the market this week. The Energy Sector was weakest.$SPY #SPX pic.twitter.com/ZXxORIv8Qs
— MarketReader Bot (@marketreaderbot) September 9, 2022
$NDX $QQQ Yesterday's action was broadly strong. Nasdaq-100 had 98.86% advancing volume the 2nd highest reading in a year. June 24 was the only higher reading at 100%.
Single days breadth measures are worthy of attention at these levels. Note strength vanquishing weakness. pic.twitter.com/tOrL6ZmMj3
— Jonathan Harrier, CMT (@jonathanharrier) September 10, 2022
2022 has the most number of weeks down for stocks as a percentage of the year since 1961.
2022 has the most number of weeks down for Treasuries as a percentage of the year since 1961.
You really think you can judge a rotation approach in a clear outlier of path behavior? $SPX pic.twitter.com/MIZz7hgnHB
— Michael A. Gayed, CFA (@leadlagreport) September 10, 2022
Both stocks and bond YIELDS ended the week higher. It’s difficult seeing this gap widen much more in my opinion – just like before Jackson Hole. Can equities rise with higher yields? Are bond markets too hawkish? We’ll find out over the next few weeks. #macro $SPY pic.twitter.com/xIEbzTPBRN
— Kantro (@MichaelKantro) September 10, 2022