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Who cares about the 2T$ pandemic excess savings anymore? 👇 Chart @strategasasset pic.twitter.com/EeWBQMBHOK
— Michael A. Arouet (@MichaelAArouet) July 3, 2022
Analysts increased EPS estimates for $SPX companies for CY 2022 during the second quarter. However, they have cut EPS estimates for CY 2022 since mid-June. #earnings, #earningsinsight, https://t.co/VbSzGVa0IX pic.twitter.com/paLsOypxDf
— FactSet (@FactSet) July 1, 2022
Foreign stocks cheaper? pic.twitter.com/8rRi5mVDBv
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) July 2, 2022
Looking Ahead To Favorable Seasonal Stock Market Trends After A First Half Drubbing
My latest @SeekingAlpha article $SPYhttps://t.co/u8ypgMep7D h/t @EquityClock pic.twitter.com/IZpPDFbzyZ— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) July 1, 2022
2022 and 2023 S&P 500 EPS estimates appear to be inching down pic.twitter.com/cHIGveHJ7t
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) July 1, 2022
Oh dear; none of them is expecting a down second half… (h/t @johnauthers) pic.twitter.com/yTz8Nt3Vaa
— Walter Deemer (@WalterDeemer) July 1, 2022
S&P 500 earnings not expected to round-trip to the Q1 2020 level
2019: $163
2022: $230
2023: $250 pic.twitter.com/2ElCPvgncN— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) July 1, 2022
Consumer Staples & Utilities have a higher forward P/E ratio than the Information Technology sector pic.twitter.com/MpJegO6bXG
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) July 1, 2022
SPX: Filling the downside gap is tactically bullish..But still watching SPX 3500 and 3200 $SPY pic.twitter.com/FhTY9F4ch5
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) June 28, 2022
US Absolute vs Relative Valuations: https://t.co/5u64Nl1uDw
This chart has changed a lot — absolute valuations have come down significantly but-1: still not cheap; and but-2: the ERP is still expensive as bond yields have drifted higher. pic.twitter.com/StC3fI8mnY
— Topdown Charts (@topdowncharts) June 28, 2022
$SPX Step back, weekly chart. MACD is way oversold vs Bear Mkts since 2008, even 2000. It has taken 6 mos to get here. Could take another 6 mos to get down to a 32.8% Fib Retracement. Relief rallies have been much shorter & faster than previous Bear Mkts. 1/ pic.twitter.com/y58Fu9duzv
— Alan Cohen (@al_xdpg) June 29, 2022
US Absolute vs Relative Valuations: https://t.co/5u64Nl1uDw
This chart has changed a lot — absolute valuations have come down significantly but-1: still not cheap; and but-2: the ERP is still expensive as bond yields have drifted higher. pic.twitter.com/StC3fI8mnY
— Topdown Charts (@topdowncharts) June 28, 2022
MA breadth charts updated thru yesterday’s close pic.twitter.com/FZ9EgVVDFQ
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 29, 2022
Historically-elevated percentage of companies trading below cash and short-term investments@FactSet @JPMorganAM pic.twitter.com/xlThkCPPsJ
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 29, 2022
Overall U.S. corporate profits fell -2.2% in 1Q2022, worse than +0.7% gain in 4Q2021 and largest drop since 2Q2020 when pandemic erupted pic.twitter.com/iostNJReXJ
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 29, 2022
With only 2 trading days left in June, S&P 500 set to post worst 1H return since 1970 (3rd worst in S&P’s modern era since 1957); historically there’s been little correlation between the 1H & 2H performance (in 1970, S&P’s 1H -21% followed by +27% in H2)
@SPDJIndices pic.twitter.com/LVhJT7kSoW— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 29, 2022
1) Energy multiples compress during a super-cycle. They DONT expand!
2) They go to single digits but EPS more than offsets.
3) It's when multiples begin to expand that ya gotta start to look for the exit (we are not there yet).$CVX $XOM $BP $SHEL #EFT pic.twitter.com/fWaoV8apqU
— The Crude Chronicles (@crudechronicle) June 29, 2022
The NDR Cycle Composite takes 3 historical cycles (the 1-year seasonal, the 4-year Presidential, and 10-year decennial cycles)
It has been almost perfect in 2022, and why many strategist still hold fast to a 2nd half rally $SPX $QQQ $SPY $NYA pic.twitter.com/SN4aeH9Xlk
— Seth Golden (@SethCL) June 29, 2022
Here’s some perspective on how much markets have shifted: At a 16x P/E, the implied cost of capital for equities is now close to 6%. It was 3.5% not too long ago. pic.twitter.com/rm7aEmqI90
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) June 28, 2022
Fortunately, we have 2020 to remind us that contrary to popular belief, NO ONE is too bearish right now. pic.twitter.com/EQsvJ0l0jB
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 28, 2022
and you're confident in that 225? analyst estimates have not come down in 2022. in fact, second half estimates looking for double digit gains. look at this, too. pic.twitter.com/k19Z7n9YrX
— Bob Lang (@aztecs99) June 29, 2022
🇺🇸 Seasonality
Historically, S&P 500 seasonality is more bullish in October prior to the midterm elections
👉 https://t.co/LIJieGvcaAh/t @BofAML #markets #seasonality #assetallocation #returns#equities #sp500 #spx $spy $spx #stockmarket #investing #stocks pic.twitter.com/so1opEVfM5
— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) June 29, 2022
Sentiment: II bears > bulls for the 9th consecutive week.
Last time we saw this was 2008-09, when it occurred three different times. pic.twitter.com/i7kXRPudHg
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) June 29, 2022
Consolidated #equity positioning by managers is new previous non-#recession market lows.
h/t @ISABELNET_SA pic.twitter.com/agbeus9tBd— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) June 29, 2022
Anyone who is bullish now is a hardcore liar. We've never seen anywhere near this amount of risk in our lifetimes.
"The consumer is strong" pic.twitter.com/lqELEZzxF8
— Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) June 29, 2022
GS: Rising interest rates have primarily accounted for the S&P 500 YTD decline pic.twitter.com/ztKxvRKvYp
— JE$US (@WallStJesus) June 28, 2022
I’m joining @MariaBartiromo this morning on @MorningsMaria at 8am ET to discuss the macro/market outlook.
It appears that Wall Street analysts are finally BEGINNING to get serious about more realistic EPS estimates. +EPS revs fell to 25% in June! #macro $SPY pic.twitter.com/DZKXu1eUFw
— Kantro (@MichaelKantro) June 29, 2022
On a forward P/E basis, S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector is back to being more expensive than Tech sector pic.twitter.com/WvOZIeo8JC
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) June 29, 2022
JPMORGAN: “We're reducing estimates & price targets on 26 companies .. The overall macro environment has deteriorated .. JPM models suggest a 66% chance of recession over the next two years & an 83% chance over the next three years. .. all of our companies are at risk..” [Anmuth] pic.twitter.com/LADL1KYKS7
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) June 29, 2022
🇺🇸 S&P 500
Profit margins for the median S&P 500 firm are expected to decline significantly
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYp6ph/t @GoldmanSachs #markets #sp500 $spx $spx #spx #profits #corporateprofits $spy #stocks #stockmarket #equities #investing pic.twitter.com/qBJs1fxsK0
— ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) June 29, 2022
Inflation impacts stocks when it deviates from its recent range: when it's to the upside, it's a headwind, but when it's to the downside, its a tremendous tailwind.
Otherwise it is mostly noise. pic.twitter.com/Kegfeyxmaa
— Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA (@WillieDelwiche) June 29, 2022
US regional manufacturing confidence really dropping like a stone, wow pic.twitter.com/sVxGgizhJf
— 𝒦𝒶𝒾 (@MacroTechnicals) June 28, 2022
🇺🇸 Given an extreme number of job openings, I am thinking that my model is a bit early in its call for higher unemployment. But then again it's been very accurate in the past.
Also, my broad EPS model has recently tanked in a very substantial way. 2023 looks set to get ugly… pic.twitter.com/ULFs7NePXR
— Mikael Sarwe (@MikaelSarwe) June 29, 2022